Saturday, July 19, 2014

Here Is A Simple Linear Regression Model Showing How Analyst Price Targets & The Actual Stock Price Have Worked (Or Not Worked) Together

Here you can download the regression analysis in excel for Ebay (EBAY). It shows how the analyst price targets have worked with the actual price. There isn't much correlation - here is the link to download the analysis in excel via Google drive.

Enjoy!

JC Penney (JCP) - A Follow-Up On The Regression Analysis

JC Penney (JCP) article at Seeking Alpha from 8 weeks ago. I don't generally try to post old stuff but I wanted to demonstrate the power of linear regression models to predict the future value of stock prices. While it certainly doesn't always work and there are many factors to consider, it has worked in the case of JC Penney. Not only has it worked but during the last 8 weeks the actual closing average value for the stock was $8.80. This is only three pennies off from the predicted value per the simple linear regression model that I put together back in May and published May 21st. Here was the chart that was presented in the article:
If you go to the article you can download the analysis in excel and update it per new analyst recommendations. Enjoy!

Tuesday, July 15, 2014

Iron Ore Mining Has Struggled During 2014 - So, Does Vale SA Represent a Strong Value Play?

Vale SA has been hit harder then some others within the Iron Ore Mining industry. However does it really represent a value play within the mining industry? Based on former analyst statements, we look at the EV/EBITDA, the Forward P/E, the ROI, and the Cash Ratio. We also look at the normalized performance of the stock price against Vale's competitors as well as showing it pegged against the spot price. For the article go to this link at Seeking Alpha.
Enjoy!

Sunday, July 13, 2014

Cliffs Natural Resources - An Analyst Price Target Linear Regression Model

Here is all the data for a simple linear regression model utilizing the price targets set by analysts over the last 2+ years as the  independent variable and the subsequent average stock price as the dependent variable. You can download this document in excel through my Google drive via this link.

Enjoy - email/comment with any thoughts!

Friday, July 11, 2014

Here is Why Consol Energy Was Falling and Why You Can Benefit

Consol Energy is in the Coal Industry which has been hit hard lately - but they might still be the best buy within that industry. Read all about it here in my article over at Seeking Alpha.
Enjoy!